Recently Massachusetts-based financial services consultant Tom Corcoran sat down with Ken Lambert Mortgage Enterprises Inc’s (and UK-based Alternative Mortgage Funding Ltd’s) president Ken Lambert* to discuss numerous current and pending conditions regarding the mortgage lending marketplace. The timing of this discussion was prefaced by the recent political winds revolving around the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the recent rulings about FHA which will lead to the downsizing of their own mortgage market share. The following is a selected excerpt:
Tom Corcoran (TC): It seems like both the Democrats and the Republicans are dead-set towards significantly reducing the scope and breadth of the GSE’s and FHA-insured loans. Why is this suddenly a pressing issue that needs to be addressed, and do you think it is a wise move?
Ken Lambert (KL): Tom, last year Federal agencies or Federally-sponsored entities funded or guaranteed nearly 90% of all residential first mortgages. Essentially, for the better part of the last 3-4 years the U.S. government has totally run the housing market. And prior to that, Fannie and Freddie were a very large portion of the mortgage market for over 20 years. Is it the government’s job to give you a mortgage- or determine the terms of your loan? And if you default or are delinquent with your mortgage, is it the government’s job to bail you out? No matter your political stance, most would agree that the Feds have drastically overstepped their bounds in housing finance over the past 15 years- and now we have paid our price and finally the pendulum is swinging back to a more normal true capitalist market.
TC: What about the people that say that less people will be able to qualify for a mortgage now that the Feds are reducing their role in the market?
KL: I’d say that is true for a number of reasons, and it is not necessarily a bad thing. When I was originating loans a year or 2 ago, all of us loan officers were glad that FHA was still around and some FHA lenders were doing manual underwrites because those, and some USDA rural housing loans, were the “new Alt-A” loans. They were the only place we could go with “questionable” borrowers. It was good for the loan officer, but maybe not great in the long run for the borrower. And also not good for the American people if people were put into loans that really they shouldn’t have been in.
TC: Where do you see the mortgage market 1 year from now? And, what about 3 years from now?
KL: Well, I’ve written some more in-depth articles about just this (and the general real estate market) for a couple of industry outlets over the past several months. But, the simple and short version is that 1 year from now I would predict 30 year fixed rates at around 6.5% – 6.75%. That might sound terrible because of how deflated the rates have been over the past 2-3 years but in general 6.75% is the average mortgage rate over the past 40 years. Due to that rise, more borrowers will consider hybrid ARMs and other similar loan products. That is always the way it has worked; at a fixed 30 year 4.375% mortgage, nobody even considers alternative or adjustable loans. In 12 months I think we will be in the middle of a shift where the private sector will be responsible for about 35%-40% of the market share- instead of 13% as it was in 2010.
TC: And what about in 3 years time?
KL: I think for many dynamic reasons, including pending inflation, mortgage rates will be escalating. I don’t see anything crazy like 14%, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 8.50% or so for a 30 year fixed. People forget that just 20 years ago, during the elder Bush administration, mortgage rates were around 9.50%. And the economy survived somehow…
TC: What about the types of loan products out there in 2014?
KL: By then, I see the private sector accounting for at least 60% of the residential market. I think the available products will be more similar to the UK and Canada. Shorter fixed terms, more adjustable products, and more unique products as well. Wall Street has always been more creative than the Federal agencies. For good and bad. But in the future, we know to stay away from loans that trigger negative amortization and such. We know not to have 102% LTV mortgages out there being written. So, as long as there is reasonable oversight and regulations, there will be some intriguing mortgages for borrowers to consider.
TC: Like what? Anything that you are hearing about?
KL: I think you will see some come to the forefront later this year and next year, after it is determined how much oversight the Feds will really have, and what the disclosure rules for loans will really be, etc. My company has such a product, the Alternative Mortgage Fund, which is tied to an index rate but is a fixed payment mortgage. Its structure allows the borrower to build up home equity faster than other mortgages, due to increased principal paydown. But, there are others that will prop up as well from various strategic firms.
TC: I’ve heard that smaller or regional banks have already started getting more involved in residential first mortgage writing. Is that true, and why?
KL: Yes, its true- and also don’t forget about credit unions. Both types of lenders should see greater market share in the coming years. But they have to be smart about it. These firms normally do a lot of dollar volume in home equity lines and loans- but I don’t see that right now, and for the rest of 2011 anyhow. Who has 40% equity in their home to take out a decent equity loan? No lender will allow more than 80% LTV, or not many, on an equity play. Especially since housing values will likely still decline another 5%-10% in the next 12 months. They all know that. So, they will need to write more 1st mortgages in order to build their portfolios and their departments. They all claim they have “money to lend”, so now they just have to do it. If they end up keeping most of the first mortgages in house, that is another reason why we will see less and less 30 year fixed rate loans. Banks don’t want those sitting around at a fixed level for over 15 years; they don’t want to be “stuck” with an asset like that. They will be pushing for more ARMs and hybrid ARMs, and maybe even our AMF loan. Who knows?
TC: I know there are plenty of other topics to discuss, but I realize you have to run. Potentially we could speak again in a month or two?
KL: Certainly, Tom. I’d look forward to it. Thank you.
*learn more about Ken and his firm and product at www.homequitybuilder.com
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